【关于石油简单英语作文初中】经济学人191102号：To the last drop

To the last drop

石油时代的结束

the drilling of the first modern well in Pennsylvania in 1859 set oil on a path that led to the heart of economics and geopolitics . oil fueled the riss It henow a new chapter ii S story is unfolding : the prospect of stagnating or falling demand as the world shifts to cleaner energy . as in the past，thhe

自从1859年第一口现代油井在宾夕法尼亚开始钻探以来，石油已经进入了经济和地缘政治核心的时代。石油促进了西方消费文化的出现，这是二战的关键，也是引发20世纪70年代全球经济危机的主要因素。在过去的20年里，中国逐渐成为世界第二大原油进口国，美国页岩革命的成功意味着它将成为20世纪50年代以来第一个能源净出口国。现在石油时代的新篇章已经到来。随着全球需求转向新能源，对石油的预期需求将停滞或减少。和过去一样，新的石油时代表明经济和地缘政治正在发生变化。

consider the imminent stock-market flotation of Saudi Aramco，Which produces 10m barrels of oil a day or 11% of the global total . as well as Aramcoworth well over $1 trn，it could，once listed，be the worsy Squeezing past apple . the initial public offering has been delayed seversa big Aramco processing plant was hit by a missile strike in September and the firm is ultimately controlled by Muhammad bin Salman，An autocratic

请关注即将上市的沙特阿美石油公司(“沙特阿美”)。这日产1000万桶石油占全球总产量的11%。它在受到很多称赞的同时，也受到争议。沙特阿美的市值预计将超过1万亿美元，一旦上市，将超过苹果成为世界市值最高的上市公司。沙特阿美的IPO计划因各种原因被多次推迟。9月份时，其命名中的一个主要炼油厂停产，其经理人——双手鲜血王穆罕默德本萨勒曼广为人知。沙特阿美此次IPO传达的潜在战略信号是，如果石油行业萎缩，它将成为最后高耸的石油商。这预示着业界急剧变化的到来。

the term " peak oil " was coined in 1956 by m . king hubbert，a geologist worried about the stuff running out . today the phrase is babbert

the opposite reason: the prospect of dwindling demand. That may seem odd given that this has grown by 1.4% a year since 2008. But the people running energy companies have long horizons, and on that timescale the picture for oil is darkened by urban pollution and climate change. Oil is responsible for a third of global energy use and a similar share of carbon emissions.

“石油峰值”这一概念是由地质学家金·哈伯特教授于1956年提出，他认为石油作为不可再生资源会竭尽。如今这一概念因未来对石油的需求量减少而被重新提起。从2008年以来，市场对石油的需求量诡异仅增长1.4%/年。但是能源公司的运营者们往往目光更长远，而就长远来讲，城市污染和气候变化让石油行业前景蒙尘。石油占全球能源消耗的三分之一, 而在碳排放量上也占相似的比例。

Many oil firms still say that production will creep up over the next decade, to slightly above today’s level of 95m barrels per day (b/d), and then plateau. But output will need to drop to 45m-70m b/d by 2050 if the world is to stop temperatures rising more than 1.5-2℃ above their pre-industrial level. It would help, too, if there was a shift to cleaner oilfields, whose crude emits a fifth less than the dirtiest ones. Though oil bosses insist, in public at least, that oil remains the planet’s indispensable fuel, they can feel the growing stigma. Public opinion is shifting in the West, heralding tighter rules on emissions. And, in a sign of jumpiness, some Western firms have favoured short-term projects rather than sink their capital in decades-long bets on oil’s future.

很多石油公司表示未来十年内石油产量将会缓慢增长到略高于目前日产9500万桶，然后会渐趋平稳。但如果想要阻止全球气温较工业化前水平上升1.5-2℃以上的话，那么在2050年前需要将全球石油日产量降到4500万至7000万桶。此外，选择更清洁的油田开采也会大有益处，这些清洁油田的污染排放较非清洁油田可以减少到1/5。尽管石油大亨们（至少在公开场合）仍坚称石油仍是全球不可缺少的能源，但他们慢慢被打脸。西方的公众舆论也在逐渐变化，这也预示着更严格的排放标准将会出现。另外根据市场波动显示，西方公司更倾向于投资回报短的项目，而不是石油这一需要长达数十年回报周期的行业。

If demand does fall, some products and producers are more vulnerable than others. Over a third of all oil is used in cars and lorries which could eventually be fitted with electric engines. It is harder to find a substitute for the oil in petrochemicals and plastics. Common sense suggests that the highest-cost and dirtiest oil firms will tend to go out of business first. If so, an industry that has become gargantuan over 160 years will shrink to core of producers that fulfil the world’s residual demand at the lowest financial and environmental cost.

如果石油需求量下降，行业内部分产品和生产商将会遭受更大的打击。超过1/3的石油产品用于汽车和卡车动力，而它们未来发展趋势必定是电动化。在石油化学和塑料行业很难找到石油的替代品。高成本和高污染的石油公司往往会最先破产，如果是这样的话，这个拥有160年历史的庞大行业将会缩减至只有少数核心玩家参与，而这些核心玩家将以最低的经济和环境成本满足全球的剩余需求。

Many environmental activities fear this energy transition will never happen. But, in fact, it fits with Aramco’s strategy and pitch to investors. The firm spends just $3 to lift a barrel from beneath the desert, less than almost anyone else. The emissions from extracting Saudi oil are rock-bottom, too. Aramco is expanding in petrochemicals and locking in customers in Asia-in August it bought a $15bn stake in the chemicals arm of Reliance, an Indian giant. Saudi Arabia has promised investors they will get steady dividends whatever the weather. Implicit in the kingdom’s approach is that, if and when oil demand falters, Aramco will be the producer of last resort.

很多环保人士担心这种能源转型永远不会发生。但事实上，能源转型符合沙特阿美的战略以及其向投资者们传达的内容。这家公司开采成本比其它任何公司都要低，它仅需3美金就可以从沙漠中开采出一桶原油。而且它开采过程中排放物也是最少的。沙特阿美正在向石油化工领域扩张，并且锁定了亚洲市场。今年8月，沙特阿美斥资150亿美金入股印度化工龙头信实集团的化工部门。沙特政府向投资者们承诺，无论外部环境如何，他们都将获得稳定的股息。沙特政府态度表明，如果石油需求量下滑，沙特阿美将成为最后的生产商。

A cleaner planet is in everyone’s interests. But a shrinking oil industry could mean more, not less, turbulence for energy markets and geopolitics. Take energy markets first. The optimistic case is that supply and demand will taper down in tandem, and that the price of oil will fall along with the cost of producing the last barrel needed to satisfy ebbing demand. But downsizing an industry with $16trn of capital and at least 10m employees is never going to be smooth. Because oilfields naturally deplete, a drought in capital spending could cause a price spike. Each firm and country, including Saudi Arabia, will face a choice between holding back supply so as to bolster profits and tax revenues and opening the taps to grab market share and use up reserves, whatever the price, before it is too late. The OPEC cartel, which combines high and low cost producers, could implode. And as production focuses on fewer fields, the risk of disruption from terrorism or accidents will rise.

一个更清洁的地球符合每个人的利益。但是石油行业的萎缩只意味着能源市场和地缘政治的动荡只会更多。以能源市场为例，乐观的情况在于供应和需求同时减少，石油的价格也会随着生产最后一桶石油的成本变低而下降。但这对于一个拥有16万亿美元资本以及至少1000万名员工的巨大行业来说绝非易事。油气资源会自然枯竭，而资本投入的乏力可能会导致油价飙升。包括沙特阿拉伯在内的每个国家和公司都将面临一个抉择 --- 要么为了增加利润和税收而抑制石油供应，要么为了抢占市场份额而用尽石油储备，无论价格如何，以免错过时机。由高成本和低成本产油国组成的欧佩克可能会内部瓦解。而且随着生产集中于少数油田，恐怖主义和突发状况造成的破坏风险将会增加。

The political implications are just as big. Twenty-six countries rely on oil income for 5% or more of their GDP, say the World Bank (the average for them is 18%). If economic logic prevails, producers with the dearest and dirties oil- including Algeria, Brazil, Canada, Nigeria and Venezuela- should wind down output, but that would be painful and, for some, devastating. America, meanwhile, remains wedded to oil, which meets 40% of its energy needs. Its thirst has been satisfied by the fracking boom, especially in the Permian basin in Texas. Yet fracking is dirty and new projects need an oil price of $40-50 a barrel to break-even, at least twice the level Aramco requires. For the sake of the climate and efficiency, the fracking industry should eventually shrink. That, though, would make America more reliant on foreigners, just as its politics have turned inward.

这一变化的政治影响同样巨大。世界银行称，有26个国家的石油收入占到其GDP的5%甚至更多，平均份额达到了18%。如果按照经济逻辑来说，像阿尔及利亚、巴西、加拿大、尼日利亚和委内瑞拉等石油生产成本高昂、污染严重的国家应该减少石油产量，但是这将是非常痛苦的，对于某些国家来说甚至是毁灭性的。与此同时，美国对石油的依赖占据其能源需求的40%。页岩油的兴起，特别是在德克萨斯的帕米亚盆地的页岩油开采满足了美国对石油的需求。然而页岩油的开采会造成污染，且开采成本高达40-50美金每桶，这至少是沙特阿美开采成本的两倍。为了环保以及经济性的要求，页岩油的开采最终会有所收缩。这会使得美国在政治方向转向内部的时候反而能源上更依赖进口。

And then there is Saudi Arabia itself. Aramco’s pitch to investors will boast of its abundant, cheap and relatively clean oil. That much is true. But it will not dwell on the country’s jobless youth or opaque court politics. Perhaps the proceeds of the IPO will help modernize the Saudi economy; perhaps not. Investors betting on Aramco as the last oil major standing in 30 years’ time will have to consider the risk of revolution or invasion. Aramco’s flotation is a sign that the end of oil could be in sight. But it is also a reminder that the black stuff’s capacity to cause economic and political havoc will be undiminished for decades to come.

沙特阿美向投资者宣传其拥有丰富、廉价和相对清洁的石油。当然这是事实。但它不会对外讲述沙特国内青年的失业情况和不透明的王室政治。也许沙特阿美的IPO计划可以帮助沙特经济现代化的实现，但也可能并不奏效。投资者在押注沙特阿美成为未来30年内最后一家屹立不倒的石油巨头的同时，也不能忽略沙特内部革命或者被入侵的风险。沙特阿美的上市意味着石油时代的终结不再遥远，但也同时提醒人们，未来几十年石油对政治经济的破坏并未减弱。