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上面提到的许多双边技术军事应用听起来非常乐观，有些应用可能受到各种报告和报纸或杂志文章的影响，其中作者可能高估了从实验室向战场的双边技术转让，也可能受到双边技术投机的影响[288]。

当话题涉及国家安全或国防时，避免夸大预期尤为重要。

上述量子技术军事应用是基于公共领域的最新研究的，并辅以各种有关国防应用的报道、报纸或杂志文章。由于没有这些技术的公开信息，因此没有对这几种技术的可行性提出关键意见。在这些情况下，读者应该更加谨慎和挑剔，直到有更详细的研究可用。

大型国防公司和国家国防实验室多年来一直有量子研究和开发项目，然而，只有一些详细的信息是公开交流的。

对于许多提到的量子技术，迄今为止只提供了实验室概念证明，决定量子技术能否在实验室之外广泛应用的决定性因素是组件微型化和对干扰的敏感性，这些改进不能以牺牲灵敏度、分辨率和功能为代价，实际部署的另一个决定性因素是技术的价格。

总之，考虑到量子技术研究和支持系统的进步，如过去几年中激光和低温冷却微型化，有理由对未来量子技术的军事应用持乐观态度，而不是悲观态度(从军事或政府行为者的角度)。我们需要仔细考虑作战部署中的实际能力，看看它们是否满足要求，以及性价比是否足以证明采购和部署的合理性。

用于军事应用的量子技术的开发、获取和部署将带来新的挑战。量子战争的概念将对军事战略、战术和理论、伦理和裁军活动以及技术实现和部署提出新的要求，应开展研究，以了解量子技术发展中产生的问题、影响、威胁和选择，而不仅仅是军事应用。

7.1 军事后果和挑战

军事应用中的量子技术有可能提高现有能力，例如提供更精确的导航、超安全通信或先进的ISTAR和计算能力。总的来说，量子战争将需要更新、修改或创造新的军事理论、军事场景和计划，以开发和获取量子时代的新技术和武器。

在此之前，需要制定技术政策和战略，以应对各个参与者的战略雄心。例如，国家技术政策和战略应包括国家量子技术资源(大学、实验室和公司)和市场的研究、发展状况和可行性研究以及军事和安全威胁和潜在评估。

监测量子技术的演变和适应性对于避免邻国或潜在敌对国家的技术意外是至关重要的。对一些国家来说，即使量子技术超出了它们的财力、研究或技术能力，量子战监控也是必不可少的。因此，所有的现代军队都应该对量子战争可能带来的影响感兴趣。

国家贸易和出口政策也很重要。例如，欧盟已经宣布量子计算是一项具有全球战略重要性的新兴技术，并正在考虑对名为“地平线欧洲”的研究项目进行严格的访问。此外，中国禁止出口密码技术，包括量子密码。

另一个主题是与盟友仔细交流重要的量子优势，尤其是在量子ISTAR和量子网络能力方面，这可能会泄露军事机密，如机密文件，核潜艇位置或地下设施。力量平衡的破坏会让盟友以及中立或敌对的玩家感到不安。

7.2 和平与道德的后果和挑战

迄今为止，第5节中所述的量子技术的军事应用并没有引进新的武器，即使它们使现有的军事技术更加先进;例如，通过开发更精确的传感和导航，新的计算能力和更强的信息安全。然而，量子技术，尤其是军事应用，对世界和平是好是坏的问题是相关的。

已经出现了各种要求量子计算伦理准则的呼声，提到了很多伦理问题，如人类DNA操纵、为战争和入侵性人工智能创造新材料。

尽管量子技术不会产生新的武器，但它们对现有军事技术的改进将提高这种能力，缩短攻击、警告和决策的时间。因此，即使在降低个人风险的同时，量子技术也能使使用武力的可能性更大，从而使战争更有可能。

量子技术等通用两用技术的预防性军备控制将更加困难，因为它们也可用于民用，如医学量子传感。人们将其与纳米技术进行了类比，出口管制以防止或减缓其他国家或非国家组织的扩散和军事用途，是试图减少量子技术构成的任何威胁的最有可能的方式。

具体来说，量子计算研发非常昂贵。然而，我们的目标是开发一种能够简单可靠地生产量子比特的技术，这可以为技能较少的参与者带来更便宜、分布更广、更容易获得的技术，这是即将出现问题的军事技术的一个特点。

7.3 技术后果和挑战

将成功的实验室概念验证转化为真正的“外部”应用面临许多技术和工艺挑战，例如微型化和可操作性，但不能以牺牲实验室实现的灵敏度和分辨率为代价，此外，还有其他相关的技术挑战。

其中一个挑战可能是量子劳动力。量子劳动力不需要由物理学家或拥有博士学位的科学家组成，然而，他们应该是具有量子信息科学知识和量子技术概述的量子工程师，能够理解并能够处理和评估来自量子传感器、计算机和通信的输出数据。目前，一个现有的量子生态系统正在持续增长，这个生态系统将需要越来越多的量子劳动力。这需要培训和教育新的量子工程师和专家，也就是说，越来越多的大学开设量子课程，越来越多的学生选修量子课程。此外，让这些人去军队工作会更加困难，因此，量子信息和量子技术的基本原理也应该作为现代军队的军事学院课程的一部分，量子技术将部署在这些军事学院。

另一个技术挑战是巨大的数据量。量子技术，通过所有的量子传感器、量子成像、量子通信和计算，将产生大量经典和量子数据，这些数据将增加对数据传输、处理和评估的要求，在规划C4ISR和量子基础设施时，应该考虑这些要求。

最后的挑战将是标准化。标准化过程对于不同制造商生产的设备的互操作性非常重要。除了统一接口和通信协议，标准化过程还可以包括安全验证，例如在后量子密码标准化过程。在量子网络的情况下，各种连接的设备(如节点、中继器、交换机、光纤通道和开放空间通道)是可以预期的，开发和实施一些允许成功传输量子信息的标准是很重要的。

量子技术是一个新兴的技术领域，它利用对单个量子的操纵和控制来实现多种应用，具有潜在的破坏性，其中许多应用是双重用途的，或者直接用于军事目的。然而，从TRL 1(观察到的基本原理)到TRL 6(在相关环境中展示的技术)，各个量子技术都在技术研究实验室用于军事用途。

用于军事应用的量子技术不仅将提供改进和新的能力，还将需要制定新的战略、战术和政策，评估对全球和平与安全的威胁，并确定道德伦理问题，所有这些都被称为“量子战争”。

在本报告中，描述了不同TRL的各种量子技术，集中在国防部门的可能应用或部署。由于从实验室到现实世界应用的过渡尚未实施或正在进行中，量子技术部署的精确预测是不可能的，这引发了一些问题，比如我们是否能够提出一个解决方案，与通常便宜得多且通常已经投入使用的经典系统相比，它提供了真正的量子优势。尽管对量子技术可能的军事应用的描述听起来非常乐观，但人们应该警惕量子炒作，并关注量子技术在军事应用中的实际部署所面临的挑战。

量子技术有望产生战略性的远期影响。然而，影响军事和国防力量的技术意外的可能性相当低，避免意外的最好方法是发展量子技术知识和监控量子技术的发展和就业。谨慎对待量子技术，会起到量子保险的作用。

报告原文：

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