【rumored】你想换竞选伙伴吗？黑色拜登？特朗普还用了什么手段？

民意调查结果只能提供一个即时的参考，但距离拜登大选只有100多天的现在，我们可以从民调中看出特朗普在与美国的对决中逐渐刮起了风。

数据显示，拜登目前比特朗普领先8.7个百分点，拜登支持率高的州中有6个是4年前特朗普获胜的。也就是说，如果大选现在举行，拜登比赛将以343比195的优势战胜特朗普。

特朗普要想挽回颓势，就必须调整竞选战略。

Polls only give a snapshot in time，But a little over 100 days from the u . s . presidential election a clear picture is developing 3360 Donald true

Biden currently holds a national polling average lead of 8 . 7 points，according to the realcle arpolitics average，But more importantly is

the race is expected to tighten as polling day approaches and unforeseen factors could yet emerge，But a defeat for trump on the scale the polls curls

with fund raising and polling momentum moving against trump，what options does he have to turn the race around？

1.A dramatic gesture

长期传闻特朗普放弃现任副总统迈克彭斯，选择前美国驻联合国大使妮基海利。

彭斯在2016年因帮助宗教保守派维持和平和维护政党团结而受到称赞，但目前核心共和党人对特朗普表现出极大忠诚，特朗普目前需要争取无党派、女性和新选民的选票。

历史上几乎没有证据表明副总统的支持者会在选举中产生重大影响，但有外交和行政经验的有色人种女性作为竞选伙伴，必然会影响目前的状况。换句话说，用哈利代替便士将成为头条新闻。结果不可预测。

there have long been rumors that trump could drop vice president Mike pence in favor of nikki Haley，The former u . s . ambassador to The un who is exex

pence is credited with keeping peace with religious conservatives in 2016 and helping maintain party unity，But core Republicans are now overwhh

replacing a sitting vice president would be a high-risk move-it hasn ' t been done since 1944-but the former Indiana governor；

, doesn't appear to add much to the ticket.

While historically there's little evidence a vice presidential pick makes a significant difference electorally, having a woman of color with foreign policy and executive experience as a running mate would certainly change the conversation: Replacing Pence with Haley would make headlines, with unpredictable results.

除了竞选团队的人员变动之外，特朗普还有一个吸引目光的选择：说服一位目前的保守派最高法院法官下台，而后提名一位女性，使党派提名过程成为选举的分水岭。

兑现提名保守派联邦最高法院大法官的承诺，曾帮助特朗普在2016年赢得共和党的支持，这一招今年仍有可能奏效。但问题是，目前大法官席位没有出现空缺，除非有现任大法官愿意让贤。

An alternative eye-catching option, aside from a campaign staff shake-up, would be to persuade a conservative Supreme Court justice to step down and propose a female replacement — making a partisan nomination process a dividing line in the election.

A fulfilled promise to nominate conservative federal justices helped Trump win over Republicans in 2016, and could galvanize supporters again in 2020. The problem is, there's no vacancy — unless a sitting justice agrees to make way.

2. Draw Biden out

在特朗普的竞选造势中经常提及民主党候选人拜登的种种失误，但这位“常常犯错”的拜登却渐渐赢得了更多的民意支持并在保持低调的同时筹集了更多的资金。

拜登的许多立场都比四年前的希拉里更贴近左翼，但他自称是“温和派”。拜登是一位年长的白人男性，因此特朗普很难对他发动身份政治攻击。相较而言，预期中拜登的竞选伙伴，一位有色人种女性，更有可能成为特朗普攻击的目标。

The Trump campaign has desperately tried to provoke mistakes from the Democratic candidate, but the often gaffe-prone Biden has climbed in the polls and out-fundraised his opponent while maintaining a low profile. A reelection attempt is a referendum on the incumbent, and the 2020 race is all about Trump.

In 2016, Trump was the insurgent and Hillary Clinton his foil. His attempts to mock the former vice president as "Sleepy Joe" have largely fallen flat, and a massive advertising campaign appears to have had little impact so far.

Many of Biden's positions are to the left of Clinton's in 2016, but he has cast himself as a moderate in comparison to the "democratic socialist" wing of his party and as an old, white man he is harder for Trump to attack with identity politics. Whoever Biden picks as his running mate, expected to be a woman of color, is likely to be targeted.

The Trump campaign will also be ready to amplify any mistakes or vulnerabilities as Biden makes more appearances on the trail over the coming weeks. The three presidential debates, the first of which is scheduled for September 29, will be big opportunities for Trump to try to poke holes in the 77-year-old Democrat's candidacy.

3. Change course on big issues

特朗普的竞选活动有很多问题，但最明显的是，这位现任总统对当今很多重大问题的看法与大多数美国人不一致。

美国的新冠病例激增，但特朗普却坚称他的政府做得很好。最新的益普索（Ipsos）民意调查显示67％的美国人不赞同他此次的疫情应对措施。

当特朗普质疑戴口罩的科学性并嘲笑拜登戴口罩的行为时，益普索的数据显示，目前九成的美国人会在外出时戴口罩。上周六，特朗普首次戴着口罩出现在公众面前。

The Trump campaign has many problems, but the starkest is that the president's views on the big issues of the day are at odds with those of a majority of Americans.

As COVID-19 cases surge in the U.S. and Trump insists his administration is doing a good job, the latest Ipsos polling suggests 67 percent of Americans disapprove of his handling of the pandemic.

As Trump questioned the wisdom of wearing a mask and mocked Biden for doing so, Ipsos data showed nine in 10 Americans now wear one outside their homes. In a change of tone, the president on Saturday wore a mask in public for the first time.

这种意见分歧在近期席卷全美的“BLM（Black Lives Matter）”运动中也十分明显。

皮尤研究机构（Pew Research）称，舆观调查网（YouGov）的民意测验显示，60%的美国人同意“BLM”运动的原则，而只有35％的人认为特朗普可以妥善处理种族关系。

As voters, companies, universities, sportspeople and politicians voiced support for the Black Lives Matter movement, Trump hardened his rhetoric against protesters as he tries to portray himself as the "law and order" president.

Sixty percent of Americans agree with the principles of the Black Lives Matter movement, YouGov polling suggests, and only 35 percent of voters believe Trump can effectively handle race relations, according to Pew Research.

There is time for opinion to change and Trump's positions are popular with his base of supporters, but without a shift in approach he risks alienating a majority of voters.

4. Economic stimulus

正如特朗普2017年的税收计划所示，他从不避讳通过增加赤字来提振经济，并且一直在凭借着强势的经济增长和就业人数的提升来推动他连任。

虽然目前突如其来的疫情打断了这一切，但皮尤的最新数据显示，仍有51％的选民对特朗普做出良好经济决策的能力充满信心，略高于拜登的48％。

Trump has never been shy of increasing the deficit to boost the economy, as his 2017 tax plan showed, and had been banking on strong growth and jobs numbers to propel him to a second term.

The pandemic has dashed that hope, but the latest Pew data indicates 51 percent of voters are still confident in Trump's ability to make good decisions about economic policy, slightly ahead of Biden on 48 percent.

With Republicans looking at a one- stimulus package and the Democrats favoring a plan three times bigger, the politics of putting more money in Americans' pockets is awkward for Trump.

But perhaps the president can tie himself to a spending package and hope that voters begin to feel an improvement before ballots are cast — which is likely to be well in advance of November 3 for many Americans, with voting by mail expected to surge — reinforcing his claim that only he is capable of rebuilding the economy.

5. Double down on the base

特朗普无疑想重现2016的辉煌，但随着美国国内关于种族歧视的讨论愈演愈烈，他四年前的“套路”真的还能奏效吗？

四年前，特朗普输掉了几个关键州的普选，却在选举人团的票数上以微弱的优势打败了希拉里。而如今随着公众舆论的风向转变，许多女性、无党派人士和年长的选民开始抨击这位共和党候选人。

Trump is presently digging deep into his 2016 playbook, with hardening rhetoric about race punctuated by messages of division. Can such a strategy really work again?

Trump supporters at Dream City Church in Phoenix, Arizona, June 23, 2020. /AP

Trump lost the popular vote to Clinton and won the electoral college with narrow victories in key states. Suburban women, independents and even older voters are moving against the Republican candidate, while public opinion has now shifted on some of the president's central themes.

He has railed against Obamacare, but the majority of voters now view it favorably according to multiple polls. And Gallup has found that more Americans now want more immigration than less for the first time since polling on the issue began in 1965.

It's difficult to see how repeating the 2016 plan alone is a winning formula, especially with a FiveThirtyEight average approval rating of just 40.1 percent.

And if nothing else works, there's always the rumored nuclear option: Trump could step aside in favor of another candidate, rather than lose.